Uburyo nyamukuru bwa bisi z'amashanyarazi zo mu Bushinwa mu 2026 ni ubu: isoko rizava ku nkunga ikoreshwa na TCO, bateri za 800V zifite voltage nyinshi kandi ziramba zizahinduka nk'izisanzwe, imiterere y'umutekano w'ubwenge izashyirwa mu bikorwa, guhinduranya bateri bishingiye ku bintu bizahinduka, guhinduranya bateri no kwamamaza V2G bizatezwa imbere, kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga ku rwego rwo hejuru bizakorwa, kandi imicungire y'ubushyuhe izavugururwa byuzuye. Hano hari ibintu birimo kubaho ubu kandi bishobora gushyirwa mu bikorwa muri 2026, bigabanyijwemo module.
1, Imiterere y'isoko: kwiyongera gato k'ubwinshi bw'ibicuruzwa, impinduka zikomeye mu miterere, ubwiganze bwa TCO
Kugurisha n'ingano: Biteganijwe ko hazaba hari bisi nshya 82000 zikoresha ingufu zirenga metero 6 mu 2026 (+3.5%), zifite ingano y'isoko iri hagati ya miliyari 48-55 z'amayuani; Amashanyarazi meza arenga 92%, kandi igipimo cy'ubwikorezi rusange kiri hafi 100%.
Guhindura moteri: Gusezera ku kwishingikiriza ku nkunga, * * TCO y'imyaka 5 iri hasi ya 25% -35% ugereranyije n'imodoka za mazutu * * iba ingingo nyamukuru igurishwa; Itandukaniro ry'ibiciro hagati ya peteroli n'amashanyarazi, kubungabunga bike, agaciro gasigaye k'amabateri, n'inyungu za karuboni bigira umurongo ufunze.
Itandukaniro ry'imiterere:
Ubwikorezi rusange bunini (metero 10-12): gusimbuza amatungo asanzwe ni cyo kintu nyamukuru kigenda gihinduka, kandi iterambere riragenda buhoro.
Hagati (metero 8-10) n'umucyo (metero 6-8): kwiyongera gukomeye (ku kigero cya 39.6%), hibandwa ku gutwara abagenzi mu mijyi no mu byaro, ingendo z'ubukerarugendo, ingendo z'ingendo zihariye, na serivisi zo gutwara abagenzi mu busitani/ikibuga cy'indege.
Kunoza uburyo imodoka zitwara abagenzi zitwara abagenzi: Yutong, BYD, na CRRC Electric bifite isoko rirenga 70%, kandi ibigo bito n'ibiciriritse birimo kwihutisha uburyo bwo kuzitwara.
2, Ikoranabuhanga rya batiri: Iramba, umutekano uri hejuru, ikoreshwa mu buryo buciriritse
Imiterere isanzwe y’ibikoresho by’ikoranabuhanga by’imodoka bifite igihe kingana: Ibipimo ngenderwaho bikubiyemo icyuma cya lithium fer phosphate (LFP) gifite uburebure bw’imyaka 15/kilometero miliyoni 1.5, gifite uburebure bw’igihe nk’ubw’imodoka yose, nta batiri isimbura ubuzima, kandi gifite TCO nziza cyane.
Ubwinshi bw'ingufu bukomeza kwiyongera:
Uburyo bwo hejuru: Bateri zisanzwe zishyirwa mu byiciro bito, zifite ubucucike bw'ingufu bwa 180-220Wh/kg n'uburebure bwa 500-600km.
Ubwoko bw'ubwinshi bw'imodoka: LFP yazamuwe igera kuri 160Wh/kg, ifite intera isanzwe ya 400-450km kuri bisi za metero 12.
Amabwiriza akomeye y’umutekano yashyizweho: nta bateri ikwirakwira ku bushyuhe, imicungire y’ubushyuhe ku isi, amabwiriza y’uburiganya bwo gukwirakwiza ubushyuhe bwa AI; Gukwirakwira kwa selile imwe ntikwirakwira kandi byujuje ibisabwa ku rwego rw’igihugu.
Kugabanya ikiguzi: Igiciro mpuzandengo cya bateri za LFP ni ≤ 550 yuan/kWh, kandi ikiguzi cyo kugura kigabanuka kikagera ku nshuro 1.3 y'imodoka zikoresha mazutu.
3, Sisitemu yo kongeramo ingufu: ishingiye ahanini ku gusharija vuba kwa 800V, guhinduranya bateri nini, igerageza rya V2G
Platifomu ya 800V ifite voltage nyinshi iba ingenzi:
Mu 2026, igipimo cy'imodoka nshya zifite 800V kizaba ≥ 60%, naho imbaraga zo gusharija zikaba 350-500kW.
Ishyushya kugeza kuri 80% mu minota 10, yongera ingufu mu rugendo rwa kilometero 300, ijyanye n'imikorere ikomeye.
**Igishyushya cy'amashanyarazi gifite ubushyuhe bwinshi (HVCH)* * Isimbura PTC burundu, ifite ubushobozi ≥ 95%, igisubizo
Sitasiyo 1800+ zo guhinduranya bateri, zikorera imijyi 85% yo ku rwego rw'intara; bateri zisimbuzwa iminota 3-5, zikora neza kurusha imodoka zikoresha lisansi.
Kwibanda ku mihanda minini itwara abagenzi mu mijyi no mu byaro, ibibuga by'indege/parikingi; gutandukanya imodoka za BaaS n'amashanyarazi bigabanya umubare w'imodoka zigura (ku kigero cya 30% -40%).
Igerageza rya V2G ryo kwamamaza: Imijyi 10 irimo Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, na Shenzhen izakoresha bisi zikoresha amashanyarazi nk'ububiko bw'ingufu zigendanwa kugira ngo zifatanye mu gikorwa cyo kogosha grid, hamwe n'ubwiyongere buri mwaka bwa yuan 20000 kugeza kuri 30000 kuri buri modoka.
Gukwirakwiza ahantu ho kubika no gusharija hahujwe amashanyarazi ya photovoltaic: ububiko bwa photovoltaic + ububiko bw'ingufu + gusharija vuba, kugabanya ikiguzi cyo gusharija ho 20% -30%, no kugabanya umuvuduko ku muyoboro w'amashanyarazi.
4, Ubwenge: Umutekano mbere ya byose, imiterere isanzwe ya L2 +, uburyo bwo gutwara ibintu bibiri no kugenzura ibintu bibiri
Kuvugurura imiterere y'umutekano: gutwara imodoka ebyiri no kugenzura imodoka ebyiri (byatewe inkunga cyane na Yutong):
Itwarwa n'imashini, igenzurwa n'abantu, iri kuri interineti byuzuye, ntiwigere ureka; Umushoferi agomba kubanza kuyiyobora kugira ngo wirinde ibyago byo "gutabara byihutirwa nyuma yo gutsindwa".
Igenzura rya kilometero miliyoni, risanzwe ku bwoko bushya muri 2026.
Imiterere isanzwe y’urwego rwa L2: igipimo cyo guteranya * * ≥ 65%, harimo ACC, AEB, uburyo bwo kubika inzira, kugenzura abashoferi ba DMS, kureba impande zose kuri 360 ° * *.
Kugwa kwa L3/L4: Gufunga BRT yo muri parikingi, Umurimo w'ubucuruzi wa bisi zo ku kibuga cy'indege; Umupilote L3 wo gutwara abagenzi mu muhanda munini, hamwe no gutwara abantu n'imashini nk'uburyo nyamukuru, arwanya ko L5 idakoreshwa n'abapilote na gato.
Guhuza ibinyabiziga mu buryo bw'ikoranabuhanga: Gucunga neza ubwikorezi bw'imodoka, gukurikirana mu buryo bwihuse, kubungabunga ibintu mbere y'igihe, gukoresha ingufu neza, gushyira mu bikorwa gahunda y'ikoranabuhanga, kunoza imikorere yabyo ku kigero cya 15% -20%.
5,Imicungire y'ibinyabiziga n'ubushyuhe: yoroheje, ihujwe, ifite ingufu nyinshi
Yoroheje: Gukoresha cyane aloyi ya aluminiyumu, fibre ya karuboni, n'icyuma gikomeye, bigabanyije uburemere bwabyo ku kigero cya 10% -25% n'ikoreshwa ry'ingufu ku kigero cya 8% -15%; uburemere bwa metero 12 * * ≤ toni 12 * *.
Guhuza ingufu nyinshi z'amashanyarazi: kuvugurura burundu kuva kuri 400V kugeza kuri 800V, harimo moteri n'ibikoresho by'ikoranabuhanga DC/DC 、 Guhuza ingufu nyinshi z'amashanyarazi bigabanya ingano yabyo ho 30% kandi byongera imikorere myiza ho 5% -8%.
Impinduramatwara mu gucunga ubushyuhe (Urufunguzo):
Uburyo bune bwo guhuza: bateri + moteri + kugenzura ikoranabuhanga + gucunga ubushyuhe bwa kabine, kugarura ubushyuhe bw'imyanda, gushyushya mbere y'ubushyuhe buri hasi, no gukwirakwiza ubushyuhe buri hejuru.
Gushyushya firime ifite voltage nyinshi ya HVCH: isanzwe kuri platform ya 800V, isimbura PTC isanzwe, ifite imikorere myiza ya ≥ 95%, iramba igihe kirekire, isubiza vuba, kandi igabanya 10% -15% mu gukoresha ingufu mu bushyuhe buke.
Gukonjesha no gushyushya batiri: uburyo bwo kugenzura ubushyuhe * * ± 1 ℃, igihe cyo kubaho cyongereweho 20% * *.
6, Ishingiye ku miterere: Kuva kuri rusange kugeza ku byihariye, bigabanyijemo ibice kandi bigaturika
Ubwikorezi bw'abagenzi mu mijyi no mu byaro: imodoka zoroheje za metero 6-8 zifite agaciro gakomeye, zikora intera ndende, zishobora kuzamuka cyane, zihuza "ikilometero cya nyuma".
Bisi y'abakerarugendo: metero 8-12, ifite ubushobozi bwo gutwara batiri nyinshi (400-500kWh), intera ndende (500km+), ituze ryinshi (umwuka uhagarara, ituje).
Ingendo zo mu bwoko bwa "transport" zikozwe mu buryo bwihariye: umutekano mwinshi, ikoreshwa ry'ingufu nke, gahunda y'ubuhanga, hibandwa ku gukoresha neza serivisi zo gutwara abantu.
Imodoka zo mu bwoko bwa "transport" ku kibuga cy'indege/pariki/ahantu nyaburanga: metero 6-8, imodoka nyinshi zigenda zihinduka, zigomba guhindurwamo batiri, L2+intelligent.
7、 Kohereza hanze: Kuva ku giciro gito kugeza ku gicuruzwa cyo mu rwego rwo hejuru
Izamuka ryinshi ry’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga: Biteganijwe ko bizatumiza mu mahanga imodoka 20000 (+15%) mu 2026, bingana na 25% by’ibicuruzwa byose byagurishijwe.
Imiterere y'isoko:
I Burayi: Bisi nini ya metero 12 ya bisi/bisi y'ingendo, 800V, umutekano uri hejuru, ifite ubwenge, ifite igiciro cya buri imwe kiri hagati ya 300000 na 500000 by'amayero.
Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba/Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati/Amerika y'Epfo: moderi zihendutse, metero 6-10 LFP 、 Iramba.
Kuvugurura uburyo: uhereye ku kohereza imodoka mu mahanga → Kubaka uruganda rwa KD → umusaruro w'ikoranabuhanga → imikorere y'ikirango; Yutong na BYD byabaye ibipimo ngenderwaho ku isi.
8, Politiki n'amahame ngenderwaho: Amahame akomeye y'umutekano, kongera ubushyuhe bwa karuboni ebyiri, no kongera gukoresha uburyo bwo kuzigama
Amabwiriza y'umutekano w'igihugu asabwa: amabwiriza yo kuburira batiri ikoresha ubushyuhe, guhosha ubushyuhe, umutekano w'amashanyarazi menshi; Amabwiriza akomeye ku isi yo gukumira inkongi z'umuriro, guturika no gusohora amazi mu modoka.
Gukoresha karuboni ebyiri: intego yo gutanga amashanyarazi 100% mu gutwara abantu n'ibintu; Ubucuruzi bwa karuboni n'igabanywa ry'amashanyarazi ateza imbere ibidukikije byongera ubukungu.
Gukoresha batiri mu buryo bufunze: gukoresha batiri mu buryo butunguranye + kongera gukoresha ibikoresho bikuze, kongera agaciro ka batiri ku kigero cya 15% -20%, bigabanya cyane TCO.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gicurasi-28-2026
